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Saturday 27 April 2019

Weather forecasting

A weather forecast is a prediction of what the weather will be in the future.



In the mid 19th Century, the belief persisted that weather was completely unpredictable. When one MP suggested in the House of Commons in 1854 that recent advances in scientific theory might soon allow them to know the weather in London "twenty-four hours beforehand", the House roared with laughter.

Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoy (July 5, 1805 – April 30, 1865) is best known as the captain of HMS Beagle during Charles Darwin's famous 1831-36 voyage to the Pacific. However, he is also the man who invented the weather forecast. Fitzroy's second career started in 1854  when he was appointed chief of a new department within the UK Board of Trade to deal with the collection of weather data at sea as a service to mariners.

Between 1855 and 1860, 7,402 ships were wrecked off the UK coasts with a total of 7,201 lost lives. FitzRoy believed that with forewarning, many of these could have been saved.

A storm in 1859 that caused the loss of the Royal Charter gold ship off Anglesey inspired FitzRoy to develop charts to allow predictions to be made, which he called "forecasting the weather", thus coining the term "weather forecast".

The Royal Charter sank in an 1859 storm, stimulating the establishment of modern weather forecasting

Fitzroy established fifteen land stations to use the telegraph to transmit to him daily reports of weather at set times leading to the first gale warning service. His warning service for shipping was initiated in February 1861.

For years the British public had read quack weather prognostications in almanacs, but this was the first time that predictions had been sanctioned by government. These first official daily weather forecasts were originally published in The Times in 1861. They were syndicated in titles across Britain and soon became hugely popular.

Weather map of Europe, December 10, 1887.

In the United States, the Weather Bureau (later renamed the National Weather Service) made its first official meteorological forecast in 1870.

From 1887 up until 1948, U.S. weather forecasters were forbidden from attempting to predict tornadoes due to hysteria.

In 1948, meteorologists at Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City issued the world's first tornado forecast after noticing conditions similar to another tornado that had struck five days earlier.

During World War II, weather reports were censored to prevent enemy submarines from learning about conditions. A football game in Chicago was so covered in fog that the radio announcer couldn't see the field, but afterwards he was officially thanked for never using the word "fog" or mentioning the weather.

Several days of bad weather had made aircraft reconnaissance impossible for the Allies planned landing in Normandy on June 5, 1944. Capt. James Martin Stag, President Eisenhower's Chief Meteorologist forecast a break in the weather for June 6th when the seas were calmer. Stag's defiant decision to delay D-Day from June 5th to June 6th was dubbed "The most important weather forecast of all time".

RAF weather forecaster George Cowling was the BBC's first television weatherman. He gave the first televised weather broadcast from the BBC's Lime Grove Studios, at 7.55pm on January 11, 1954. Cowling stood in front of the weather map and informed the viewing public that "tomorrow would be rather windy, a good day to hang out the washing".

Cowling continued to present televised weather broadcasts for the BBC until 1957 when he rejoined the RAF. His main tools were pencils - and an eraser - for analysing the charts and a pair of dividers for measuring isobar spacing to give wind speeds.


American television meteorologist Dick Goddard joined the weather team at WJW-TV, the Fox Broadcasting Company-affiliated television station in Cleveland, Ohio in 1965. He gave his first televised weather forecast on September 13, 1965 and would spend the rest of his career there. On September 19, 2016 Goddard was certified by The Guinness Book of World Records as having had the longest career of any weather forecaster.

A woman in Haifa sued Israel's Channel 2, along with weather forecaster Danny Rup, in small claims court. He predicted a sunny day, causing her to go out lightly dressed - and when it turned stormy, she caught the flu, missed four days’ work, spent $38 on medication, and suffered stress. The case was settled out of cоurt for $1000, and the weatherman apologized to her.

Moscow weathermen can be fined for inaccurate weather forecasting.

Source BBC

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