The tradition stems from the Christian festival of Candlemas, which marked the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox.
German settlers in Pennsylvania (the Pennsylvania Dutch) introduced the custom to America, substituting the European badger or bear with the more locally abundant groundhog (Marmota monax).
The first official Groundhog Day was celebrated on February 2, 1887, at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.
The most famous weather-predicting groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil. According to local lore, there has only ever been one Phil, who has been making predictions for over 135 years thanks to a "groundhog elixir" administered by the Inner Circle—the group of tuxedo-clad dignitaries who care for him.
Despite his fame, Phil’s meteorological track record is statistically poor. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests Phil’s predictions are accurate approximately 40% of the time.
The 1993 film Groundhog Day, starring Bill Murray, significantly increased the holiday’s popularity. Before the film, attendance at Gobbler's Knob averaged a few hundred people; it now attracts crowds of up to 40,000.
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